The fragile truce between Russia and Ukraine appears to be unraveling, with Moscow claiming Kyiv has launched yet another wave of attacks on Russian energy infrastructure—violating a U.S.-mediated moratorium that was supposed to last 30 days. According to Russia’s Defense Ministry, Ukrainian forces struck power lines, gas pipelines, and electrical substations in multiple regions, including Belgorod, Bryansk, Donetsk, and Kherson, in just the past 24 hours.

The ceasefire, agreed upon after a March 18 phone call between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, was meant to de-escalate strikes on critical energy facilities—a tactic both sides have used to weaken each other’s wartime resilience. But from the start, Russia has accused Ukraine of ignoring the deal, tallying what it claims are over a hundred violations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, meanwhile, insists his forces have honored the pause.

The conflicting narratives highlight just how brittle these temporary truces really are. On Friday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed the moratorium had officially expired, noting that while Russia "adhered to it fully," Ukraine did not. Still, he struck a cautiously optimistic tone, calling the U.S.-brokered initiative worthwhile despite Kyiv’s alleged breaches.

Now, with Putin declaring a separate Easter ceasefire—lasting from Saturday evening through Sunday night—the question is whether Ukraine will observe this one. The Russian leader framed it as a litmus test for Kyiv’s willingness to negotiate peace, warning that Moscow’s forces stand ready to retaliate if provoked.

But trust is in short supply. Ukraine has good reason to doubt Russia’s sincerity, given past broken ceasefires and Moscow’s insistence that any real peace deal must involve Kyiv surrendering occupied territories. For its part, Russia sees Ukraine’s continued strikes—if confirmed—as proof that Zelensky’s government prefers Western-backed escalation over diplomacy.

With the original energy truce now lapsed and the Easter pause fleeting, the war’s next phase could hinge on whether Washington can salvage its mediation efforts—or if the conflict is destined to spiral back into all-out energy warfare.

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